In the realm of the global green energy transition, the significance of polysilicon—a critical raw material in the solar power industry—cannot be overstatedChina's non-ferrous metals industry is heavily influenced by fluctuations in polysilicon prices, which continue to showcase a complex interplay of supply and demand, market strategies, and broader economic factors.
Recent statistics from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's Silicon Branch reveal that polysilicon prices have remained stable for the week, with significant variations depending on the type of materialFor instance, the average transaction price for N-type recycled silicon has been pegged at approximately 40,300 yuan per ton, while N-type granular silicon sits at around 37,000 yuan per tonIn contrast, P-type polysilicon is trading at about 33,100 yuan per tonInterestingly, this week witnessed a surge in contracts, albeit predominantly comprising smaller transactions
This reflects a more cautious approach among companies as they navigate the current market landscape.
Since last week, a notable divergence has been observed in the pricing strategies adopted by various manufacturersSome enterprises have opted to slightly lower their prices due to a combination of market supply and demand intricacies alongside the inventory levels they are managingMeanwhile, others are cautiously optimistic about price trajectories, hinging their forecasts on a growing expectation that aggressive procurement ahead of Chinese New Year could stimulate demand, thereby leading to an upward price adjustment.
As of now, nearly all polysilicon producers are either undergoing maintenance or are operating at reduced capacitiesThis trend is reflective of a larger contraction in monthly production volumes, which is anticipated to dip to around 100,000 tons in December
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Experts are theorizing that this contraction could act as a strong support factor for prices in the short term, especially if coupled with the seasonal uptick in procurement activity.
The forecast from the Silicon Branch hints at a gradual rationalization of polysilicon prices in the futureThere are multiple underlying factors driving this expectationFirstly, the drastic reduction in market supply is poised to bolster prices significantlyFurthermore, the impending launch of polysilicon futures could improve market dynamics by inviting more trading participants into the fold, effectively addressing supply and demand imbalances.
Additionally, there is an expectation that industry self-regulation and supportive domestic policies will provide a beneficial backdrop for the long-term health of the marketIn tandem with these insights, industry observers like InfoLink highlight a recent uptick in output from the downstream silicon wafer sector as an indicator of increasing demand for polysilicon, which has resulted in a gradual stabilization of inventory levels—previously at high levels—now beginning to normalize.
Despite these encouraging signs, InfoLink approaches the future price trajectories of polysilicon with caution, particularly given the volatilities expected in 2025. Limitations stemming from self-regulation policies may take time to manifest effectively in production capacities
Currently, prices appear to have bottomed out, yet corporate strategies moving forward will be intricately linked to prevailing pricing trendsThis necessitates continued monitoring of shifts in operational strategies by manufacturers, especially as the January 2025 Chinese New Year approaches, which is typically characterized by heightened procurement activities.
Another noteworthy aspect of the industry is the observed price increase of silicon wafers this week, attributed mainly to soaring demands for G10L series wafers, which have now reached an average transaction price of 1.05 yuan per piece—an increase of 1.94%. The G12R series and G12 wafers maintain prices at 1.16 yuan and 1.4 yuan respectivelyAs battery manufacturers accelerate their inventory accumulation as the year draws to a close, there is a resultant increase in wafer procurement volumes.
The core reason for the hike in wafer prices, as detailed by the Silicon Branch, springs from a pronounced gap between supply and demand for G10L series wafers, exacerbated by a significant depletion of overall wafer inventories expected to be nearly wiped out by the end of December.
Yet, the impending holiday season poses a risk of reduced output for battery module manufacturers, prompting wafer production firms to either ramp up production or sustain current operational levels in response to inventory fluctuations
The demand for silicon wafers remains robust, but anticipated price increases may be tempered as market responses adjust to changing dynamics.
InfoLink further elaborates on the disparities noted at year-end regarding production scheduling within the wafer sector, which seems misaligned with the needs of battery and module manufacturers, predicting a likely adjustment upward in production for the monthManufacturers are actively assessing production strategies leading into the Spring Festival, with discussions around inventory management and holiday plans becoming focal points of merchant interest.
As it pertains to the battery segment, InfoLink indicates that the pricing for P-type M10 and G12 cells has remained steady, while N-type M10 cell prices have shown signs of softening and N-type G12R prices have witnessed a decreaseSuch price movements are crucial as they hinge upon the timing of deliveries and the production cycles of component manufacturers, with predictions for demand and price trends post-mid-December heavily reliant on January production schedules amidst the looming holiday shutdowns which traditionally influence operational momentum.
On the module front, adjustments to manufacturers' pricing structures were noted last week; however, tangible impacts on the market remain to be seen